White Paper on “The Politics of African Debt Restructuring” (www.africa.com)

The authors predict that at least three major African sovereigns will successfully restructure their debt in 2023 in order to avoid a default scenario by 2024. These are Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria, which each in their own way are seeking a bespoke treatment of their obligations, they write.

Angola is cited as an example of the model for African countries charting a way out of debt, while Zambia and Mozambique provide worst case examples.

The report argues that debt transparency, sound fiscal and monetary governance, and candid bilateral relations with creditors are the primary political indicators of effective debt treatments, while multilateral debt relief initiatives, such as the G20s Common Framework, fail African countries.